SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 a share — a fixed price, not a range — implying a $1.77 trillion valuation, and Morningstar answered with a published fair-value estimate of $780 billion. Washington, meanwhile, has reportedly held preliminary talks about the federal government taking equity stakes in AI companies, an idea Sam Altman has pitched directly to the President. And Quantinuum delivered the new IPO pipeline's first finished data point: priced above range, closed roughly where it priced.

SpaceX is scheduled to open its IPO roadshow on June 4 — reportedly targeting as much as a $1.75 trillion valuation and a ~$75 billion raise, with pricing reported for June 11 — and index providers have cleared a fast lane that could pull it into 401(k)s and ETFs within days of listing. The repricing is spreading beyond AI and space — defense-tech maker Mach Industries raised at a reported $1.8 billion, nearly 4x its mark a year ago. Underneath the trophy names, PitchBook counts 220+ "fallen unicorns" — a reminder the same boom lifting the top is freezing the middle.

Three S-1 filings landed inside roughly 72 hours this week — SpaceX publicly, with Oura and Blockchain.com both filing confidentially the same day. A fourth, OpenAI, is reportedly preparing a confidential filing imminently. Separately, Anthropic told investors it expects its first operating profit this quarter on $10.9 billion in revenue — a number that resets the AI-lab comp set.

In the last two weeks, NextEra agreed to buy Dominion Energy for $67 billion to feed data center power demand. Anthropic signed a deal to pay xAI $1.25 billion per month for compute. CoreWeave doubled Q1 revenue but carries $25 billion in debt at 11% interest. And the hyperscalers collectively guided to $725 billion in 2026 capex. Everyone is building as fast as they can — but the demand forecasts justifying all of it rest on assumptions that Goldman Sachs says can swing by hundreds of billions with a single variable change. Today's thesis: the data center capex chain, who's exposed, and what breaks if the projections are wrong.

05 May | Read online Anthropic's $1.5B JV with Blackstone Anthropic and OpenAI each launched a separately capitalized deployment vehicle in the same news cycle Monday — Anthropic's $1.5B JV with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman to push Claude into mid-market enterprises, and OpenAI's $4B+ raise at a $10B pre-money for a new venture called The Deployment Company. Cerebras filed updated IPO terms with a $115–$125 range and a $26.6B fully-diluted mark, and Anthropic's separate $50B primary round at a $900B valuation could close within two weeks.Anthropic and OpenAI each launched a separately capitalized deployment vehicle in the same news cycle Monday — Anthropic's $1.5B JV with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman to push Claude into mid-market enterprises, and OpenAI's $4B+ raise at a $10B pre-money for a new venture called The Deployment Company. Cerebras filed updated IPO terms with a $115–$125 range and a $26.6B fully-diluted mark, and Anthropic's separate $50B primary round at a $900B valuation could close within two weeks.

The hyperscalers reported the largest combined capex quarter on record this week, and the public markets split sharply on whether it's worth it: Alphabet closed its best month since 2004, Meta its worst day since October. OpenAI announced it has hit its 2029 compute target three years early. KKR quietly stood up a $10B+ AI-infrastructure operating company. The build-out is going faster than projected.

A widely-pitched trade in private AI investing — buy Microsoft for OpenAI, Amazon for Anthropic, Tesla for xAI — dilutes the underlying bet by a factor of ten or more, with the Tesla version diluting xAI exposure by roughly 750x. Sunday's Microsoft-OpenAI restructuring just broke the cleanest example.

SpaceX's S-1 dropped this week with a number that reframes the filing entirely: $26.5 trillion in TAM from AI, out of $28.5 trillion total. Thoma Bravo is handing Medallia to its creditors — a $5.1 billion equity wipeout that lands as the largest PE-software unwind of this cycle. Cognition is in talks at $25 billion, 2.5x its September mark. And the OpenAI/Anthropic secondary-market split kept widening: Claude's implied valuation on Forge Global reportedly hit $1 trillion the same day OpenAI shipped GPT-5.5.

Anthropic is turning away investors offering $800 billion-plus valuations — a signal that the company may believe its leverage only increases from here, especially with an IPO reportedly on the table for October. Meanwhile, a routine Alaska filing revealed Google's hidden 6% stake in SpaceX, worth an estimated $100 billion at IPO. And Amazon-backed nuclear startup X-Energy hit the road this week for an $800 million IPO on Nasdaq, bringing AI's power problem one step closer to an investable thesis.

Six private mega-caps trade at 2–3x public comps. The evergreen funds marking NAV off those prints are running a feedback loop, not price discovery. Four IPO catalysts in 120 days will break the loop or prove it right.

OpenAI's chief revenue officer sent an internal memo claiming Anthropic overstates its headline $30B run rate by roughly $8B — a direct challenge to the accounting narrative anchoring Anthropic's $600B secondary valuation. Separately, $600M in OpenAI shares sit unsold on secondary platforms while $2B in buy-side demand chases Anthropic stock with zero sellers. Underneath all of it, SpaceX's public S-1 is weeks away — and it reshapes the IPO window for every company standing behind it.

OpenAI dropped low hundreds of millions on TBPN, the buzzy tech talk show — its first media acquisition, and one that raises more questions than it answers about editorial independence. Meanwhile, secondary markets are flashing a surprising signal: $600 million in OpenAI shares sitting unsold while buyers line up $2 billion deep for Anthropic. And Q1 2026 just closed as the biggest venture quarter ever recorded — $300 billion, with foundational AI alone doubling all of 2025 in three months. The capital concentration in this market has no precedent.

The confidential SpaceX IPO filing is at the SEC. We built our own from leaked financials, tender offer docs, and government contract databases — before anyone else sees the real thing.

SpaceX is preparing to file its IPO prospectus this week or next — targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75B raise that would be the largest public offering in history. Meanwhile, Anthropic is eyeing a Q4 IPO of its own. And defense AI is having its own capital moment: Shield AI closed $2B at a $12.7B valuation. The IPO window is open.

Elon Musk unveiled Terafab on Saturday — a $20-25B joint chip fab between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI that targets a scale no private company has attempted in semiconductors. Meanwhile, the White House released its national AI policy framework pushing to preempt state AI laws, and Kalshi doubled its valuation to $22B in three months. A busy weekend for private markets. 

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file confidential IPO papers with the SEC this month — targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and a June listing that could be the largest in history. Anduril is raising $4B at a $60B valuation as defense tech capital floods the market. OpenAI launched GPT-5.4 and hired IPO counsel, hitting $25B in annualized revenue. And Anthropic's Pentagon standoff is still live — the company is back in talks with the DoD even as the supply-chain risk designation stands.

Cursor's revenue doubled to $2B ARR in just three months — the kind of trajectory that rewrites venture math. Reflection AI is reportedly seeking $2B+ at a $20B valuation just five months after its last raise. Meanwhile, Musk is cleaning house: X and xAI plan to repay $17.5B in debt ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. And MongoDB's 24% post-earnings plunge is the latest signal that even strong growth can't save you when forward guidance disappoints.

Blue Owl's decision to permanently halt redemptions in a retail private credit fund sent shockwaves through alternative asset managers this week. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly finalizing a $30B equity investment in OpenAI, Fei-Fei Li's World Labs raised $1B for spatial AI, and Robinhood is betting that retail investors want exposure to pre-IPO companies.

Secondary deal volume hit a record $226 billion in 2025—up 41% from the prior year. Meanwhile, SpaceX confirmed preparations for what could be the largest IPO in history, Anthropic is raising $10B at a $350B valuation, and the race to build the "universal robot brain" just got $1.4B richer.

SpaceX acquired xAI yesterday in a deal that creates the world's most valuable private company at $1.25 trillion—and reshapes what investors will be buying in the coming IPO. Waymo closed its own mega-round at $16 billion and a $126 billion valuation. And Nvidia's Jensen Huang says his OpenAI investment will be "huge"—but not $100 billion.

SpaceX and xAI are reportedly in merger talks ahead of SpaceX's planned IPO—a potential combination that could create the most valuable private company in history. Meanwhile, Waabi raised $1B and partnered with Uber to deploy 25,000+ robotaxis, PaleBlueDot AI hit unicorn status, and Northwood Space landed both $100M in funding and a $50M Space Force contract.

SpaceX confirmed IPO plans for 2026 at a potential $1.5 trillion valuation. The company is famous for rockets—but roughly two-thirds of its revenue now comes from Starlink satellite internet. Understanding which business investors are actually buying may be the key to understanding the price tag.

Staying private doesn’t have to mean staying stuck—secondary markets are helping employees unlock value sooner.

From space defense to semiconductors, 2025’s private secondary market is buzzing with innovation.