How Anthropic Overtook OpenAI in our pre-IPO rankings

Our latest Q3’24 Power 20 rankings again place Anthropic at #3 and OpenAI in the #4 spot. Anthropic has now been ahead for two quarters in a row. 

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So how did Anthropic overtake OpenAI and maintain its lead last quarter? Our blended scoring methodology — which scores the companies based on six broad factors — offers a lens for comparing the two companies side-by-side. 

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Activity

We look at investor activity on Augment, but also activity growth (some names, like OpenAI, trade less frequently than others due to company restrictions or other factors). 

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Anthropic activity was higher than OpenAI’s in both Q2’24 and Q3’24, and also increased meaningfully QoQ in those two periods. Meanwhile, OpenAI saw moderate activity declines in the same quarters. In Q1’24, Anthropic activity increased 5x over the total in Q4’23. 

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This robust growth over 2024 YTD, more than activity differentials in any quarter, helped drive Anthropic up in the rankings. 

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Price movement

Price changes were a factor in the rankings but were not the determining factor. As can be seen, OpenAI had higher estimated share-price growth in two of the last three quarters.

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• Q3’24: Anthropic’s estimated share price was up 8.6%. That  run-up was the highest among the top 5 names in the Power 20. OpenAI’s Augment Price was up 6.7%. 
• Q2’24: OpenAI estimated per-share price growth accelerated to 15.7% (from 3% in Q1’24), higher than Anthropic at 11.5%. 
• Q1’24: Anthropic saw a 40% decline in its per-share Augment Price, when OpenAI was up 3%. Anthropic and several other AI names saw big price declines in Q1 when they came off sky-high peaks seen during the AI frenzy at year-end 2023. This delta in price growth helped OpenAI reach #3 in the first quarter vs. Anthropic at #6. 

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Spreads 

We look at the bid-ask spread for each name as measured by volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs). Lower spreads tend to indicate healthier two-sided activity and more market agreement on pricing. In Q1’24: OpenAI had a 7% spread, vs. Anthropic at 4%. Anthropic also performed better in Q2’24, while OpenAI had the narrower spreads in Q1’24. 

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Revenue and revenue growth

We weigh revenue growth estimates higher than revenue estimates, in order to avoid biasing the rankings toward pre-IPO names that have had more years to accumulate revenue volume. Anthropic grew revenue an estimated 1,400% in 2023, albeit from a relatively low base. OpenAI was no slouch, growing an estimated 900% that year. 

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Past performance

It’s worth noting, our rankings give some weight to past quarters’ performance and so are not a simple snapshot of what might have happened in a single three-month interval.  

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In conclusion, Anthropic’s placement in the Power 20 isn’t so due to ranking higher than OpenAI across all relevant metrics. Rather, it’s because of Anthropic’s accelerating improvement in several heavily weighted score components over the course of the year, buoyed especially by its revenue growth history and activity increases. 

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*Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. Investing in private companies in the secondary market carries risks, including potential lack of liquidity and limited financial information. Chart is based on estimated prices based on observed secondary market trading, bid-ask, and fund-mark data. Past activity not indicative of future results. The revenue figures are based on third-party estimates and are subject to limitations in data availability and methodology. For informational purposes only.

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For detailed methodology and full risk disclosures, download our complete Power 20 Q3'24 report here.