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SpaceX: a $1.77T ask, a $780B dissent

SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 a share — a fixed price, not a range — implying a $1.77 trillion valuation, and Morningstar answered with a published fair-value estimate of $780 billion. Washington, meanwhile, has reportedly held preliminary talks about the federal government taking equity stakes in AI companies, an idea Sam Altman has pitched directly to the President. And Quantinuum delivered the new IPO pipeline's first finished data point: priced above range, closed roughly where it priced.

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

June 5, 2026

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

June 5, 2026

Anthropic's S-1: Reconstructed From the Record*

Anthropic confirmed Monday it submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC — no share count, price range, or timeline set. The filing is sealed, but the public record around it is unusually deep, so today we reconstruct it: $4.8 billion in reported Q1 revenue and a reportedly projected first operating profit in Q2; a reported $1.25 billion-per-month xAI compute contract that surfaced in SpaceX's filing rather than Anthropic's; a $100 billion-plus AWS commitment; a reported ~$36 billion off-balance-sheet chip lease in syndication; and a governance structure — five financially disinterested trustees who ultimately elect a board majority — with no precedent at this scale. We lay out what's on the record and mark what only the filing can answer.

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

June 4, 2026

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

June 4, 2026

Recent

SpaceX could hit your 401(k) in 5 days*

June 2, 2026

Anthropic's reported $965B tops OpenAI

Aerospace & Defense

Hardware

May 29, 2026

OpenAI's $6.6B Tender: Comp, Not Cash Out

May 28, 2026

Introducing Cash Accounts: Fund Once, Invest Instantly

May 27, 2026

SpaceX filing unveiled; IPO pipeline comes into focus

Artificial Intelligence

Enterprise Software

May 22, 2026

$725B in capex. The math behind the datacenter buildout.

Aerospace & Defense

Artificial Intelligence

May 21, 2026

Musk lost in 2 hours. OpenAI litigation overhang eases; appeal and IPO timing still in focus

Hardware

May 19, 2026

Cerebras popped 108%

Artificial Intelligence

Aerospace & Defense

May 15, 2026

Anduril at $61B and defense tech's 2026 reset

Aerospace & Defense

May 14, 2026

Hackers shipped AI's first working zero-day

Cybersecurity

Aerospace & Defense

May 12, 2026

Artificial Intelligence

View more

Anthropic's S-1: Reconstructed From the Record*

Anthropic confirmed Monday it submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC — no share count, price range, or timeline set. The filing is sealed, but the public record around it is unusually deep, so today we reconstruct it: $4.8 billion in reported Q1 revenue and a reportedly projected first operating profit in Q2; a reported $1.25 billion-per-month xAI compute contract that surfaced in SpaceX's filing rather than Anthropic's; a $100 billion-plus AWS commitment; a reported ~$36 billion off-balance-sheet chip lease in syndication; and a governance structure — five financially disinterested trustees who ultimately elect a board majority — with no precedent at this scale. We lay out what's on the record and mark what only the filing can answer.

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

June 4, 2026

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

June 4, 2026

Anthropic's S-1: Reconstructed From the Record*

Paul Smalera

Anthropic's reported $965B tops OpenAI

Paul Smalera

OpenAI's $6.6B Tender: Comp, Not Cash Out

Paul Smalera

SpaceX filing unveiled; IPO pipeline comes into focus

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

View more

The fastest SaaS company ever just doubled again

Cursor's revenue doubled to $2B ARR in just three months — the kind of trajectory that rewrites venture math. Reflection AI is reportedly seeking $2B+ at a $20B valuation just five months after its last raise. Meanwhile, Musk is cleaning house: X and xAI plan to repay $17.5B in debt ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. And MongoDB's 24% post-earnings plunge is the latest signal that even strong growth can't save you when forward guidance disappoints.

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

March 3, 2026

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

March 3, 2026

Aerospace & Defense

View more

SpaceX: a $1.77T ask, a $780B dissent

SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 a share — a fixed price, not a range — implying a $1.77 trillion valuation, and Morningstar answered with a published fair-value estimate of $780 billion. Washington, meanwhile, has reportedly held preliminary talks about the federal government taking equity stakes in AI companies, an idea Sam Altman has pitched directly to the President. And Quantinuum delivered the new IPO pipeline's first finished data point: priced above range, closed roughly where it priced.

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

June 5, 2026

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

June 5, 2026

Deep Dive

View more

$725B in capex. The math behind the datacenter buildout.

In the last two weeks, NextEra agreed to buy Dominion Energy for $67 billion to feed data center power demand. Anthropic signed a deal to pay xAI $1.25 billion per month for compute. CoreWeave doubled Q1 revenue but carries $25 billion in debt at 11% interest. And the hyperscalers collectively guided to $725 billion in 2026 capex. Everyone is building as fast as they can — but the demand forecasts justifying all of it rest on assumptions that Goldman Sachs says can swing by hundreds of billions with a single variable change. Today's thesis: the data center capex chain, who's exposed, and what breaks if the projections are wrong.

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

May 21, 2026

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

May 21, 2026

$725B in capex. The math behind the datacenter buildout.

Paul Smalera

Anduril at $61B and defense tech's 2026 reset

Paul Smalera

The Microsoft-OpenAI deal reset the proxy trade

Paul Smalera

Power 20 Q1: OpenAI -22%, Anthropic +59%

Paul Smalera

Company News

View more

Introducing Cash Accounts: Fund Once, Invest Instantly

Augment Staff

Mitigating counterparty risk in pre-IPO SPVs

Noel Moldvai

Cyrill Wiget named CEO of Augment Advisors, LLC and Augment Capital, LLC

Augment Staff

$750+ Million in AUM—and why we're just getting started

Noel Moldvai

POV

View more

What can accredited investors invest in? 7 private market opportunities explained

Augment Staff

Accredited investor rule updates: what's changed and what to watch in 2026

Augment Staff

What is liquidity risk in private markets—and how to manage it

Augment Staff

How Pension Funds Are Investing in Private Equity in 2026: Trends, Risks & Strategic Shifts

Augment Staff

Hardware

Hardware

01/03/2026

Designing for the circular hardware economy

Hardware

01/03/2026

The evolution of silicon-carbide power chips

Hardware

01/03/2026

How modular hardware reduces electronic waste

Hardware

01/03/2026

The challenge of cooling high-density servers

Hardware

01/03/2026

Next-gen haptics for immersive experiences

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

How AI agents are changing task automation

By 2026, the conversation has shifted from "what can AI say?" to "what can AI do?" We are moving past simple chatbots toward Agentic AI—autonomous systems capable of planning, reasoning, and executing complex workflows across multiple platforms.

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

Fine-tuning small language models for efficiency

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

The role of synthetic data in training

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

How multimodal ai is changing search

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

Why explainable ai is a business necessity

Pulse by Augment

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SpaceX

$588.77
+27%

Anthropic

$441.40
+59%

Anduril

$104.09
+7%

OpenAI

$687.68
-22%

Stripe

$67.61
+30%

Databricks

$222.05
+10%

Revolut

$1,712.14
+10%

Ramp

$100.51
+6%

ByteDance

$364.51
+20%

Neuralink

$130.65
+55%

Shield AI

$156.49
+61%

Cursor AI

$1,050.43
+23%

Kalshi

$543.60
+47%

Cerebras

$105.63
+173%

Canva

$1,738.97
-16%

Perplexity

$61.68
-5%

Crusoe

$132.39
+13%

Rippling

$52.00
-11%

Polymarket

$138.10
+4%

Saronic

$34.55
+57%