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Deep dive

The Microsoft-OpenAI deal reset the proxy trade

A widely-pitched trade in private AI investing — buy Microsoft for OpenAI, Amazon for Anthropic, Tesla for xAI — dilutes the underlying bet by a factor of ten or more, with the Tesla version diluting xAI exposure by roughly 750x. Sunday's Microsoft-OpenAI restructuring just broke the cleanest example.

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

April 30, 2026

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

April 30, 2026

Power 20 Q1: OpenAI -22%, Anthropic +59%

Paul Smalera

Databricks 25x, Snowflake 12x: The NAV Trap

Paul Smalera

Anthropic's Mythos Just Broke Cybersecurity's Business Model

Paul Smalera

SpaceX IPO S-1 Teardown: The Filing Nobody's Seen, Reverse-Engineered

Paul Smalera

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Paul Smalera

When ”markets” and gambling mean the same thing

Paul Smalera

Vibe coding is the new AI infrastructure trade

Paul Smalera

The private market access trade is getting its first real stress test

Paul Smalera

The AI infrastructure boom has legs. Literally.

Paul Smalera

The $100 billion market nobody can measure

Paul Smalera

Wall Street just bought the private markets. Here's what that means for you.

Paul Smalera

What a discount actually tells you

Paul Smalera

From $68B to $11B: Figma's lesson for private investors

Paul Smalera

What GameStop Got Wrong (And Private Markets Got Right)

Paul Smalera

Is SpaceX a rocket company or an ISP? Yes.

Paul Smalera

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