Tracking the Top Pre-IPO Names: Launching the Augment Power 20 Q3’24

What private names should I be tracking in the secondary markets?

It’s a question we hear a lot at Augment, and that’s no surprise. As secondary market activity grows, and companies stay private longer, knowing the top pre-IPO names is becoming essential for technology investors, regardless of where they sit.

Our Augment Power 20 report and rankings (produced in collaboration with Sacra) offer a unique, data-driven view.

What sets the Power 20 apart

The Power 20 is different from other private market indices and rankings because it uses a wider lens. The methodology goes beyond price signals and activity to encompass revenue and revenue-growth estimates for the top companies. That means the rankings include a dimension more closely tethered to company fundamentals. 

The result is a blended ranking that delivers a comprehensive, balanced view of the private markets — and a more representative slice of the top pre-IPO names. 

Our data-driven methodology

To recap, here is the full basket of factors we consider:

  • Revenue*
  • Revenue growth*
  • Bid-ask and trading activity
  • Spreads in volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs) between bids and asks
  • Price movement

We also take measures to avoid over-indexing on quarterly blips by accounting for historical momentum, balancing QoQ changes in the above factors with performance in past quarters.

In each report, we round out the Power 20 with a selection of up-and-coming names that have seen significant activity and/or activity growth, but are not yet qualifying for the top ranks.

A comprehensive view of the private market

The result is a balanced view into the market. It offers investors a wide-aperture lens into the most significant pre-IPO names — not merely those that might have seen a quarterly bump in liquidity, or that happen to be more traded because the underlying company is permissive around secondary-share transfers.

This is our third Power 20 report. Over that time, the data has consistently pointed to signs of increasing maturity in this market. Companies are establishing more consistent track records and investor activity has been pushing prices up in a steady manner:

  1. Ranking stability: SpaceX has held the #1 spot for three consecutive quarters, with Anduril at #2. In fact, the top eight names in the Power 20 kept their rank in Q3'24 vs. Q2'24.
  2. Diversifying activity: Each quarter has seen a greater proportion of activity flowing to the bottom two-thirds of the Power 20. In Q3'24, the top six pre-IPO names accounted for less than 20% of overall Augment Power 20 activity.
  3. Consistent value creation: At the end of Q3'24, the Power 20 companies accounted for an aggregate $777B in estimated market cap, up roughly 10% in the quarter.

Given their outsize impact both economically and in advancing key industries including AI, defense, and financial services, the Power 20 arguably should be as closely followed as some of the top companies in the public markets. Our rankings are a small step in that direction.

Spotlight: AI Companies

AI companies continue to dominate growth metrics in the Power 20, here are some highlights:

  • Anthropic (#3) saw estimated 1,400% ARR growth in calendar year 2023*
  • OpenAI (#4) saw estimated 900% YoY ARR growth through calendar year 2023*
  • Cerebras (#17) had 30% estimated share price growth in Q3’24, the highest in the Power 20
  • Scale AI (#X) was not far behind, with 29% growth in Augment Price per share
  • Groq (#20) was among the top five most-active names on Augment in the quarter

More Power 20 insights 

We'll follow up on LinkedIn with a series of posts analyzing all the key trends, including the OpenAI vs. Anthropic rivalry and the rise of AI as seen through the private markets. So please keep an eye out and follow along!

Want to dive deeper into the Augment Power 20? Visit our website to download the full Q3 2024 report and explore our rankings.

Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. Investing in private companies in the secondary market carries risks, including potential lack of liquidity and limited financial information.

*Revenue figures are based on third-party estimates and are subject to limitations in data availability and methodology.